The Insurance Math

Your two quotes

Use quotes for the same coverage limits from the same insurer if you can, so the only difference is the deductible. All defaults are placeholders.

Quote A — yearly premium ($)The lower-deductible option

Quote A — deductible ($)

Quote B — yearly premium ($)The higher-deductible option

Quote B — deductible ($)

Claims you expect per yearYour own estimate — e.g. one claim in ten years = 0.1

Cash you could pay tomorrow without borrowing ($)

–premium saved per year with B

–extra you pay per claim with B

–break-even: B stops paying off if you claim more often than this

–expected yearly result of B vs A, at your claim estimate

–over ten years

–

Show the working

Premium saving = premium A − premium B.
Extra cost per claim = deductible B − deductible A (only on claims larger than deductible B; smaller losses you would likely not claim under either option, which makes this slightly cautious in B's disfavour).
Break-even frequency = premium saving ÷ extra cost per claim. Claim less often than that and B wins on average.
Expected yearly result = premium saving − (claims per year × extra cost per claim).
The cash check comes first: a deductible you cannot pay is not a saving, it is a debt waiting to happen.
Not included: premium increases after a claim, discounts for claim-free years, multi-policy bundles. If your insurer quotes those, factor them in.

"Keep what you have" is a real answer. If the cheaper premium doesn't survive a realistic claim rate, or you couldn't cover the deductible, the verdict says so.
Your quotes, not ours. We don't estimate premiums or your risk. The defaults are placeholders.
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Planning estimates only. Not insurance, financial or legal advice. Read the policy wording; coverage details matter more than the deductible.